Can the D’Alembert Strategy Always Get You Profits – A Detailed Analysis

Can the D’Alembert Strategy Always Get You Profits - A Detailed Analysis

Have you ever wondered how much money a casino makes? A lot, apparently. The top Las Vegas casinos can bring in over half a million dollars daily (minus costs). For online casinos, there is no clear estimate. But it is safe to assume that the average successful online casino/sportsbook service can profit over a million a month at least. If casinos make so much money, that obviously means that people also lose a lot of money. In truth, a casino does not need to do anything more than just attract more customers. This is because nearly all casino games are profitable for the house by design. 

Without making it too complicated, if a casino game has a positive house edge, that means you will lose more money than you win. If this is the case, then how on earth do gamblers make money? The short answer is that most of them do not make a fortune from gambling. The few that do make money do it in a very specific game they have mastered – usually something like poker. But what if you want to go for some less skill-heavy game, like craps or baccarat? In this article, we will look at one of the most famous strategies of betting in such games where skill plays little role: the D’Alembert strategy. 

The Need For A Strategy

First off, what exactly is a strategy for betting? Let’s take roulette for example. About the best thing you can do to improve your chances is simply play a user-friendly form of roulette, i.e. European roulette. Other than this, it seems all you do in a round of roulette is cross your fingers and pray that your wager brings you moolah. Is it ultimately up to your luck? Yes. But that does not mean you can do more. Games like roulette are very ingeniously calculated to keep just enough leeway for the house. That is all that the house edge is about – making sure the house never goes in the red. 

However, since there is the math to ensure house profitability, you can also do your own math. A strategy does exactly that. It is a mathematical approach to betting. Needless to say, the biggest part of a strategy is bankroll management. A good strategy is one where you protect your bankroll and still hope for steady profits. 

The D’Alembert Strategy Made Easy

Like all betting strategies, the D’Alembert strat also offers you a pattern on which you can bet. To put it very simply, you increase your wager if you lose a bet, and decrease it when you win. So you put a multiplier to your initial wager amount, which has a linear increment if you lose, and a decrease if you win. 

Here is a scenario to put that into a more concrete example. You are betting on evens on a game of online roulette. Let’s say you bet $1 on your first round, and then lose it. For the second round, you should bet $2. If you lose that, you should then bet $3 in the round after that. The idea is that at some point you will win – say, for example, you win in the 6th round. If you have lost up till now, you have lost $ 1+2+3+4+5, i.e. $15. If you win the 6th round, your total profit is $6. So that is a net loss of $9.

Does It Theoretically Work?

As we demonstrated in the previous scenario, the D’Alembert strat can have disastrous consequences. If things go really bad, you will lose a lot of money following this. But does the math at least add up in theory? The whole idea is that you go for a game with 50% RTP or thereabouts to apply this. So that means you will lose roughly half your bets, and mathematically, with a bit of luck, your wins will cover your past losses. But the issue is that the 50% RTP is a long-term average. You would need a boundless bankroll to actually match a global statistical average. Unless you are Jeff Bezos, that would be an ill-advised thing to do. 

D’Alembert himself was an 18th century mathematician, so one would expect it to be theoretically sound. However, the D’Alembert strategy actually assumes that the odds of winning a break-even proposition goes up as you keep losing. This is basically what we call the gambler’s fallacy. In reality, all your bets have an independent chance. Moreover, D’Alembert strategy also cannot protect your bankroll – so it is best that you go for something safer.

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