A lot of bettors, especially newbies, do not understand the meaning and importance of value bets. If you ask a random bettor which sports team they are going to bet on, the answer is either going to be their favorites or the team with more chances to win. Although the second option seems like the only logical way of going about things, some key factors go missing here. One of the most important out of those is value bets. Even though it might be a little hard to understand, value bets are the only way you can have any chance at making any profit from long-term sports betting.
What are value bets and how to Calculate Them?
Betting on the most possible outcome does seem like the logical option in sports betting, but it is not. Because you might win frequently but since most of these won’t be value bets, you won’t make any overall profit in the long run. To make a profit, you have to understand the positive and negative values of a bet. For example, in a coin toss, the probability of getting heads or tails is 50-50. But if a person said you could bet on the coin toss and the odds for tails was 3.00 and for heads, it was 1.5, which one should you go for? This is where calculations come in. The formula to calculate the implied probability of a bet is 1/the odd × 100. That means the implied probability for tails is 33.33% and for heads, it is 66.67%.
But this method only works on the decimal odds. But some websites can help you calculate the implied probability of odds that are in a different format.
Now the wager on tails offers a positive value. This is because the implied probability is lesser than the actual probability of 50%. On the other hand, a wager on heads has a negative value. Because its implied probability is greater than the actual probability. This is basically how you count positive and negative value bets. To have a greater chance at making a profit in the long run, you should bet on the teams with a positive value even if the team has less chance of winning. There are a lot of other factors that contribute to the games. But you should always be on the lookout for positive value bets as they offer the best outcomes.
How to Find Value Bets?
Now that we have talked about how to calculate value bets, we come to the next part, which is finding them. It can be pretty hard to find a value bet because in most case scenarios, the odds on both teams are negative value bets. But unlike coins, the way to calculate the actual probability of games can be very hard. Because in a coin toss, the actual probability of the two possible outcomes is always 50-50. But there are a lot more factors when it comes to a game. The game might draw or a player might get injured which might immediately change the odds of that game. It is not possible to come to a precise conclusion about actual odds in games. The best we can do is to consider all the factors and make an educated guess.
After we calculate the actual probability, the rest is easy. You then calculate the implied probability and you will get an idea of whether there is a positive value in the game or not. If there is, you can wager on it, if there is not, you should avoid it. It might seem stupid to sometimes bet on the sides that are more likely to lose, but it is the only way to make a profit off sports betting. But you should not ignore heavy favorites as well. Always assess the probability before you look at the odds. Some websites can help you find value bets but you have to do extensive research to calculate the actual probability.
There is no constant in the world of betting other than skills. Everything keeps changing and it is only normal that you will sometimes lose money. But do not take it to heart. Come up with a bankroll management strategy and do your research before wagering your money. Not a lot of people make long-term profits from sports betting. But those who do follow the value bets system. Value bets are the only secure way of making sure you can make money off of betting.